How do you know you are performing at the top of club performance, or even above the average? What percent of revenue, relative to total revenue do your neighbor wineries produce from just the tasting room or just the club? If I asked you how many wineries pay for data capture within their comp structure in the tasting room, what would be your guess? What percent of revenue comes in through web sales in your region?
What's the reserve tasting fee in your region? How about the average tenure of a club member sorted out by average bottle price? Would it help to know the average gain in club members in your AVA last year?
I've recently been thinking about the changing metrics we've had available to manage the wine business over the years. What metrics existed 30 years ago for small wineries? How was wine sold then? What was the atmosphere like? How did we get information?
With daylight savings time upon us, I also started daydreaming today while looking out at the pool and thinking about summer. That brought me back to a trip to Mexico I took 40 years ago, so Mexico met up with metrics in this post as I pondered what direct sales will look like in 2028.
In 1988 my wife won a sales contest at work that provided for an all-expenses-paid three days at the Fiesta Americana in Puerto Vallarta. I had never been to a foreign country before, except Canada and I didn't count Canada as foreign. But Mexico? Well going there would make me an official world traveler!
I spent last week at the Unified Wine Symposium in Sacramento. I've been coming to the conference since 1995; the first year ASEV and CAWG merged their separate conferences into one. Life was very different back then.
In 1995 you could find a really good bottle of Napa Cabernet for $15, Fed Funds were 8.5%, and marijuana possession was considered a Schedule I substance under the Controlled Substance Act of 1970 and prosecuted as such - right along with LSD, mescaline, and magic mushrooms.
The very next year - late in 1996, California became thefirst state to allow the legal use of medical marijuana, leading to the collapse of the Unified Conference and all wine sales as we knew them. OK that last part's not true. Since that first year of Unified, wine sales in the US have experienced 20+ years of growth, even with medical marijuana coming on the scene. And Unified's Trade Show which back then didn't even fill up the first floor of the Sacramento Convention Center, now has two floors of trade show participants and a waiting list to get on the floor. Needless to say, the Unified Conference has thrived.
The 2018 Annual SVB Wine Industry Videocast was presented last Wednesday to a record audience both domestically and across the globe. You are welcome to replay and review the session above. I'm always happy when the videocast is over because it marks the end of 3+ months of writing and research, which is a marathon to begin with considering I have other job responsibilities and the research and report activities push through the Holiday Season. This year though, the process felt like running a half-marathon wearing ankle weights.
Most of wineries have already developed their strategic plans for 2018 and are starting to execute. The plans had to be put together using history as a guide, laced with a hint of a best guess. That's just the way this family owned industry has to roll.
When you're standing in the middle of something, it's hard to understand just how big it is, and when the Napa fires were at the early stage and there was no progress in containment, I got a sense of just how big a story it was when I started taking press calls from around the globe. The reporters all wanted to know about the extent of the damage to the wine industry, having seen the pictures from Santa Rosa of utter destruction. It's not the first time I was in this position.
When the Napa Earthquake hit, I was tasked with trying to gauge the damage to the wine business for the Federal Disaster Declaration, but in that case I had some data to work with. This time, I had a phone, spotty cell coverage, no internet with widespread power outages so couldn't see news coverage, and was only keeping current with colleagues, family, and clients using texts and cell phone.
Without full containment yet, many are already looking forward to begin the recovery, even with still blurry and red eyes.
When I think about the wildfires that scoured the North
Coast of California this past week, I come up with a hodgepodge of visuals – waking
up to the red glow out of my bedroom window on Sunday night when it all started, a
bulldozer cutting a firebreak a half mile from my home Tuesday night and saving my block, watching the heartbreaking
sight of a neighbor’s home burn to the ground on a ridge Monday morning, seeing blood red sunsets, the feeling of relief when power finally came back on, and being unable to sleep listening to my cellphone screaming out Nixle Alerts every half
hour telling me about a new evacuation, wondering when it would be my turn.
There are so many stressful points from the past week from which I have a lot of new stories to tell, and lots of pictures that
I’ve shared on social media. It was a week that seemed more like a month, reinforced by a blur of numbingly shocking scenes.
Falling on the heels of a growing anti-tourism movement, of late I've taken calls from officials in three particular cities that are now considering tightening regulations, or altogether banning the growth of downtown wine tasting rooms. What else can officials do to make the wine business more difficult? That's what many are asking. Why are municipalities working so hard to hinder success of an industry that helps pull in millions in local occupancy taxes, and donates many more millions to charity? Answer: It's just politics. The wine industry isn't sufficiently engaging in the debate so we have ourselves to blame in part. We have a fight on our hands but don't show up in force to planning commission meetings and support applications. We make it harder on officials who only hear from their constituent nay-saying minority. To the credit of the officials, one thing they are doing is asking around for data and facts that might help balance the debate, but I'm wondering if opening a downtown or urban tasting room is even a good business decision in the first place?
It's easy to tell people what they want to hear. It's harder to tell them what they don't want to hear. In 2007 I saw the above chart that tracked US home prices versus median family income. With other indicators in the market, I was convinced there was a real estate bubble already in the process of bursting and I started talking about it in speeches. The result of my prescience? I stopped getting speaking invitations and in one speech had the organizer ask if I could be a little more cheery. People don't want to consider the downside risk in business when things are going well. If I told you today what you wanted to hear, I would say that wine consumption is growing in both volume and dollars and consumers are continuing to trade up above $9.00. I would tell you that grape prices are at an all-time high and trending higher right along with land prices. That's true and might get me more important speaking engagements, but I'd rather you know about an underlying trend I'm seeing that's more than a little concerning. If I'm right, it's going to change the way you are thinking about business right now.
I had the opportunity to visit Christian Oggenfuss and Geralyn Brostrom at the Napa Valley Wine Academy just after the release of the State of the Industry Report. We sat down to an open mic over a glass of wine and explored several of my perspectives on the business as well as the story of how the Wine Division of SVB was created, and why we started producing the State of the Industry Report.
After you get though the early part of the podcast which sounds a little like a This is Your Life show on your's truly, at about the 15:00 mark we start to get into some of the concepts discussed in the report. The questions I cover are:
Every credible measure that I see regarding restaurant wine sales is trending negative for the small family-run wineries. Why? What's behind the declining trend? Economics? Changing consumer attitudes? Conspiracies from wholesalers? Big wineries displacing the small ones? It's not due to a lack of desire from restaurant owners.
Restaurateurs love the wine business. The business is worthy of their love because it enhances the enjoyment of the food served to their customers. It's practical for the restaurant trade to love wine because restaurants themselves make better margins on bar sales compared to food sales. Wine for the restaurant trade is still an important part of success, but sales opportunities to restaurants are collapsing for small wineries.
We had a good time on set delivering several perspectives on the SVB/WBM annual Direct to Consumer survey. For those aficionados of our surveys and telecasts, you might note a shift in the title but it's just reflective of how we've evolved the survey questions.
We used to call this survey the Tasting Room Survey but over time we started to realize tasting rooms were only part of the formula for success, so we started asking more questions about wine club metrics. Now we have several years of benchmarks from which we can determine trends in clubs and in tasting rooms.
Direct to Consumer sales now represent 60% of the average winery's revenue, but the real growth in direct sales has only taken place over the past decade, dramatically accelerating in the past 5 years. While it might seem like wineries have been doing this for a long time, it's difficult for me to say direct sales have been a professional discipline. In 2013 I published one of my more popular posts addressing the problem the industry faced in finding good Direct to Consumer Managers. Since it was a new discipline, it wasn't possible to find experienced managers. That is starting to evolve with time, but we are still scratching and clawing our way to direct sales success, learning from each other as we go and playing a little bit of follow the leader. Some of that is good and some not so good which underscores the importance of data.
After many years of flailing away looking for the right strategy, we are seeing DtC sales homogenize around a common theme. Wineries build a tasting room with a design statement. That's 'the experience.' Customers come to the winery, pay a fee and receive a curated tasting of wine. At the end of the tasting, the customer is invited to join the wine club and somewhere around 7% accept. It's working, and if you believe the stats that came out yesterday, DtC sales in February 2017 were 37% higher than February 2016.
Today, the eleven largest wineries are moving 80% of the wine sold in America, while distributors continue to march toward complete consolidation. The other 9,000 wineries in the U.S. are left to compete with each other for the remaining 20% of case sales.
Not their Fault
I don't blame wholesalers. They have no financial incentive to take on that mass of small customers. Add to that the decline in restaurant sales, which historically have been a large part of family wine sales, and it's hardly an exaggeration to say that Direct to Consumer sales are required for the survival of small family wineries now. It's really their only viable path to market, and yet the industry itself is still barely novices in selling wine direct.
The title of this piece is the question all wine companies should be asking today, because boomers are the dominant cohort across all price points above $14. Can they continue to buy your wine?
I've been saying for nearly a decade the anticipated ascendance of millennials as the top cohort was greatly exaggerated as to both timing and impact, but their coronation is coming and the day when boomers no longer dominate consumption is also fast approaching.
Most of the wine business has already developed their strategic plans for 2017 and is starting to execute. The plans had to be put together using history as a guide, laced with a hint of a best guess. That's just the way this family owned industry has to roll.
My fiance Jackie and I just got back from a spectacular 2 week wine cruise with Darioush Winery that started in Lisbon and ended in Rome. I've never been to Rome so we tagged on an extra 5 days at the end of the cruise to see the sights. There is a problem in going that extra week though. I don't care how big your suitcase is. By the time you've lived out of it for 2 weeks you are flat out of clean clothes so selecting something to wear becomes a challenge. What I underestimated is just how that challenge could impact our shopping experience at one of the world's top luxury retailers. Ask yourself as you read though, 'could this happen at my winery?'
I've been hiding in Europe while the most recent election debate has been taking place. I've been in Lisbon, Cadiz, Barcelona .... pretty much having sangria and tapas across the Iberian Peninsula.
It's been more than civil over here, and I've really been interested to see the business growth in the region, at least with respect to tourism. My last visit here was in 2010 and things were miserable. But the usual tourist areas seem packed now which is good to see, because Spain for example still has more than a 22% unemployment rate and nearly 50% among youth. They really need tourism. In another change, after the terrorism in Nice I have noticed a larger police presence throughout the tourism areas and even some on La Rambla carrying weapons.
I fled over to Europe in part because thought I could get away from all the acrimony and derisive talk about the presidential race... and I wanted a vacation too. But guess what? People in Europe care about who the next "Leader of the Free World" will be too. It's the very first thing they want to talk about. And guess who they favor in a non-scientific poll? Answer: Neither.
You might be surprised to find the Europeans I've spoken with here seem more concerned with why these are the best two candidates we can find? I find myself explaining how our process works, and am getting a civics lesson in how other countries elect their leaders at the same time.
I've yet to find a single person tell me they would vote for either candidate but in an equally enlightening discovery unlike Americans, Europeans aren't glued to watching Sean Hannity or Rachel Madow so they aren't overly focused on the press revelations and network spin. Instead they are focused on what positives the candidates bring to the party while they go about their lives.
I envy the Europeans because they aren't force fed the hype but I am glad we in America will soon be put out of our collective misery and we'll have a new leader. We'll have an election, I'll vote my conscience and I'm just glad it will be over for American's and Europeans alike!
But this Vote isn't Yet Over
Unlike the firm ending date for Presidential Election, the Silicon Valley Bank Annual Wine Conditions Survey which had been scheduled to close Friday, has been extended out and will now close Wednesday, October 19 at 5:00 PM Pacific time. This is a much easier decision than the Presidential Election.
For 12 minutes time, you will get the complete survey results, and dozens of relevant
graphs and analysis that will help you benchmark your winery. This will be distributed only to those who complete the survey.
You can take the 2017 SVB Wine Conditions Survey here ------> [LINK]
Face it. Getting actionable information in the wine business is challenging. You can pay more than $2,000 for an annual report on the wine business and in return, get regurgitated information. I once did that myself. Thinking I would check on the offering of a group putting out a comprehensive report on the wine business, I was disappointed to find it was closer to a college level report that consolidated information from primary research. In fact several places cited the Silicon Valley Bank Annual Wine Report to support their findings. There are a few places where you can get good primary research on the trends facing the business. For the past decade we've led a survey and conducted research with more than 600 wineries and the major AVA's participating from across the country each year. Why are we so lucky to get such strong participation? I think there are a few reasons:
We deliver good and needed information to the business for free.
We keep the information anonymous and noone can back into responses to determine who responded.
We've earned the owner's trust that we aren't using your information to add you to a sales calling list.
We give back more than we take. Only survey participants receive the complete data set back and that helps everyone in planning for the year ahead.
So I hope you will consider taking the survey this year. It takes about 12 minutes and in exchange, we will send without cost, the complete survey results, dozens of relevant graphs, and our early analysis on wine industry conditions. [Last year's survey results].
The survey is scheduled to close next Friday so please don't wait. Your participation will pay itself back many times over. Take the survey now [LINK] PLEASE SHARE THIS POST ON YOUR FAVORITE SOCIAL PLATFORM
Is tourism a problem? It depends who you ask, but it's impact has been feared and debated for a very long time as an issue. Even way back in 1972 when many of us were still living life in black and white, and cable was part of your corduroys instead of your TV, tourism's impact in the Napa Valley was being reviewed and questioned.
Some things have have remained the same today but the narrator in the above news piece offered an interesting view into tasting rooms of the day when he said tourism was "important to PR, and to a lesser extent, sales." You see, tasting rooms back in the day weren't put in place to sell wine. That's what distributors did. Tasting rooms were nice-to-haves. My how those days have changed! Today tasting rooms and tourism are linked to the survival of family wineries. Direct sales represent 60% of an average winery's sales, and tourism is the lifeblood of the family winery. Without tourism and direct sales, I'd make an educated guess that 60% of the wine business as we know it would fail.
This is the third of a three part series: Part 1, Part 2
If millennials are narcissistic, lazy, and entitled as described in our last post, you will need to quickly come up with some new marketing tactics. So instead of giving them a toaster for joining the wine club (a boomer era tactic), maybe you could give away a free mirror with every new account? Oh I know! What about giving away a tiara for the self-absorbed, and some Red Bull for the lazy ones?
Desperate to find the secret of the millennial code, media and researchers have taken creative license over the past fifteen years which in the final analysis, hasn't provided the hoped for guideposts that would convert marketing strategy into new consumers - at least as it relates to the wine business. But it has created a dialogue overblowing the impact of our youngest cohort (eg, above video.)
Just the Facts Millennials are the most engaged and socially connected generation of all cohorts. They demand sustainability and authenticity in their products. Socially responsible and transparent companies rank high in importance when it comes to their purchase decisions. They demand customization and wide selection. They consume more wine per occasion than all the other cohorts combined. Thirty-three percent of Millennials say they are motivated to buy more frequently when a friend recommends a wine, but 99.8% say they like any wine better when a friend buys it for them. One hundred and fourteen percent agree with the statement that feeding one's animal spirits premium wine is better than hitting your toe with a hammer. The remaining percentage believe morning-after flat party beer is good for hydration, so long as there are no cigarette butts in the bottle. When there are butts in the beer, their preference to consume falls to 0.4% with a statistical error rate of +/- 0.4%
I'm not fond of looking at pictures of myself. It's even worse when I try and grab a screen shot like the above from last year's Tasting Room videocast. Blech. Makes me sick. That looks like I'm getting ready to spit! Actually it's the end of a sentence where I'm saying 'tasting roooommmmm.' That's what I look like when I say 'm,' and it's the best I could do - I'm sad to say. But looks aren't everything.
Let's talk about Millennials! How exciting is that conversation? Demographers and researchers are laser focused. It's a feeding frenzy at times because that's the growth opportunity of future retail. Boomers are old news, nothing to write home about and not hardly anywhere near as interesting as Millennials.
Oh ... there is GenX of course but why talk about them? They are a small cohort.... except they are the second largest consumer of fine wine in the U.S. today and the largest growth opportunity for most wineries, but that doesn't matter. Let's talk about Millennials!
WMC: "Millennials Consume 42% of all wine in America"
The Wine Market Council presented their annual 2016 roadshow in New York in January, and using the above slide announced with fanfare that Millennials are now the largest wine drinking population in America,consuming 42% of all wine and surpassing the boomers with 30% of total consumption.They also said Millennials were consuming 160 million cases compared to 114 million cases consumed for boomers (below right chart).
To many of us in the business the facts appeared grossly exaggerated, but the media ran with the story because it was such a senstational headline. The long-awaited ascendance of the millennial had finally come we were told, and the articles proclaiming the fact hit the wires in waves:
WMC: "Millennials and Boomers Consume the Same Amount of Wine."
Inexplicably, six weeks later at their Yountville presentation, devoid of any supporting facts or charts, the WMC offered the following totally contradictory statement in their presentation:
"Boomers and Millennials today account for nearly the same amount of wine consumptionand Millennials will soon account for decidedly more consumption."
Every year when we start the Direct to Consumer Survey I'm always a little nervous about participation. The effort required to sell wine has become more difficult by the day, and owners have to make choices about where to invest their precious time. Survey results could be viewed as nice-to-have versus a critical need, but in this case I'd argue this is a have-to-have for wineries with Direct to Consumer sales.
We know that the average winery today has nearly 60% of their sales made direct largely through wine clubs and tasting rooms. How do we know that? Through an annual survey conducted by SVB.
If you have a club or a tasting room, how do you know you are performing at the top of the club performance, or even above the average? If I asked you how many wineries pay for data capture within their comp structure in the tasting room, what would be your guess?
Today 168 wineries have responded to the SVB Annual Tasting Room Survey and here is the result thus far for that question:
What about the average dollar comp awarded to tasting room staff in your region. Is that of interest? How about the average tenure of a club member sorted out by average price point so you can compare your winery against a winery with a similar price point? Would it help to know the average gain in club members in your AVA last year, or what about the average number of lost members?
Each of those questions are examples of benchmarks that will be available to you for free but here's the catch:The benchmarks are only available to those who take the 10-15 minutes to complete the survey. Isn't that an investment well worth making?
When the survey is closed on March 18th, we will spend over 200 person hours completing the analysis and will then return charts, graphs, and an excel spreadsheet cleaned of any identifying information. You will be able to dig even deeper into the data if you want.
In May we will host a live videocast to go over some of the results as we did last year.
In the July issue of Wine Business Monthly, the magazine will publish some of the information and conclusions in their annual Direct To Consumer edition.
None of the above is possible without the 10-15 minutes invested in the survey itself. Please consider taking the time to answer the survey questions. Your participation will improve both your own direct program, and help the US wine industry improve.
If you feel this content is worthwhile, please promote the link in your favorite social media platform, or even better - please forward the link to your winery colleagues and ask them to participate.
If you would like your AVA to participate, we will also send them free Regional Benchmarks for their own use if we have a statistically significant sample size and an address to send the information.
I remember walking to school shortly after the Cuban Missile Crisis. We were practicing ‘duck-and-cover’ drills in our classrooms, and we trained
on what to do when we saw the blinding white flash. The propaganda video clip at the top is a great example of the beliefs of the day.
Wine and Cuban Hero Che
Walking to school in the early 60's, I’d plan
where I would hide along the route just in case. One of the neighbors had a bomb shelter but
after that, it was refrigerators in garages and fireplaces as the preferred hideouts. It was a discomforting
time for the Country. President Kennedy embarrassed in the Bay of Pigs Invasion was staring down Khrushchev, the Premiere
of the former USSR in a game of nuclear chicken with continental annihilation
hanging in the balance.
With that as context, it’s surreal to find myself sitting in
a bar in Havana Cuba writing this piece and participating in an official U.S.
Trade Mission promoting California Wine. We're not promoting world peace or selling tractors. We're promoting a luxury product to a socialist country.
The first part of the year has turned into a fire hose of new industry information in the wine business. Right after we released the State of the Industry Report, we all ran to Unified to hear more discussion about industry trends. I missed Fred Franzia's lively lunch presentation Tuesday but was there all week and once again moderated the Thursday General Session. I then came home and got on a plane to Miami where I will leave with the Wine Institute and the Napa Vintners for a Trade Mission to Cuba at 4:00 am Sunday morning.
Thursday, January 21, 2016 9:30 a.m.–10:30 a.m. PT
I expect this will be one of the most interesting reports we've ever authored. I would like to invite you to join us live for a discussion of the report and wine business with our expert panel: Rob McMillan, EVP & founder of Silicon Valley Bank’s Wine Division, Paul Mabray, Chief Strategy Officer of VinTank, Amy Hoopes, Chief Marketing Officer/EVP Global Sales at Wente Family Estates and Jeff Bitter with Allied Grape Growers.
We will review the findings of the 2016 State of the Wine Industry Report, which is based on SVB’s in-depth survey of wine industry experts and insiders, third-party research and Rob’s unique perspective as a long-time member within the wine industry.
This presentation will include insights on:
Changes in the market share of imported bulk and bottled wine
Predictions of 2016 sales growth in the fine wine segment
Winery financial performance
Expected changed in U.S. per capita and total consumption
Consumer demand changes
Harvest yields and bulk inventories
Prediced changes in the opportunities of domestic wine producing regions
Bottle price changes
Please [register] for the videocast and receive a link to the replay and the complete 2016 Wine Industry Report after the live event.
It can be a little hard getting revved back up when the year starts. Truth be told, few of us are excited to jump back in full speed. We'd rather slip back to revel in the warmth of the holiday's then start executing on the new plan.
I have a little difficulty finding normal when the year starts because November and December find me researching and writing the Banks Annual State of the Industry Report. Add in Christmas, the New Year, business holiday parties, routine daily business issues and my birthday - which falls on December 24th, but it's OK if you forgot. You can get me a gift next time. Anyway.... I can't wait to start the new year and find normal again!
With the New Year's Resolutions on our minds, one related question someone inevitably brings up is "do-overs." If you had a chance to do anything over, what would that be?
I have more than my fair share but I'll throw out one. It's the story of the young lady who agreed to marry me when I was 21 and she was 18. I thought she was a real keeper and we were in love. She said yes! I was so excited until my brand new fiancé said I had to ask her father and then reality started to set in. What if he said no?
I've just spent the past 6 weeks researching and writing the 2016 State of the Industry Report. It always sucks the life out of me because its all encompassing 12 hour days without a break, even on weekends. When it's done, I'm ready for something else entirely. I look for re-runs of Friends and I Love Lucy or comedies I've seen a zillion times like Groundhog Day ... which is the segue into an article I saw this morning titled: Pennsylvania: Sweeping liquor Reform bill advances toward full Senate and uncertain future.
