Wine: It's what the young consumer wants. They just don't know it.

 

The beginning of change is understanding.

Each January in California, we are all enlightened by the Unified Wine and Grape Symposium, the DTC Wine Symposium, the Sovos ShipCompliant DTC Wine Shipping Report, and the Silicon Valley Bank State of the US Wine Industry Report. I'd like to say I attend them all, but some overlap. I do make it a point to attend the SVB State of the Wine Industry Videocast though. To allow flexibility, SVB records the video presentation of the SVB Report for replay. 

There is good news to talk about!

 

 

Last week I had a call from a friend in the wine business asking for a meeting to discuss the Annual SVB State of the Wine Industry Report. I had no real idea what he was going to say.

When we met, he told me he appreciated what I presented in the report but didn't like the stories he'd read in the news. He thought some were overly critical and missed the positive things happening in the wine business. He asked me if I should be more positive during interviews to cast a better light on the business.

From his perspective, the industry is doing really well. That's because he sees the industry from the vantage point of a business that is hitting the cover off the ball. And to his view, a very large part of the premium wine business reported 2021 was one of, if not their best year ever!

SVB Annual State of the Industry Report and Videocast is Wednesday. Sign up!

 

    We're All Glad that Year is Over

2020 will go down as the year in which we answered the heretofore rhetorical question - What else can go wrong? That is the opening line from the 2021 SVB State of the Industry Report that will come out Wednesday the 13th. 

Throughout 2020 many of us experienced the same run of emotions from disbelief, fear, acceptance, determination, and occasionally even a bit of joy through one of the most difficult times in history. As we went through the year, we would think to ourselves - this has to be the worst of it. It has to get better from here? 

We all fought through a series of events, increasing our vocabulary along the way: Coronavirus, COVID, S.I.P. Orders, social distancing, Zoom meetings, herd immunity, PPE, and pandemic - which I thought only happened in bad science fiction movies before last March.

    Will 2021 Be Better than 2020?

I can say with absolute confidence that 2021 will be better than 2020, but I can also say that “normal,” when we get there, will be different from what we left. But we have lives to live and businesses to run so let's get to it! 

Despite the headwinds and distractions, there are opportunities we need to consider and take advantage of and consumers who will be looking to buy your wine. 

We need information and the right tools to be able to plan. While we have to talk about the past for context, this coming Wednesday, I hope to give everyone the benefit of a look forward.

Start with the headline slide for a teaser. Despite the gloomy events of the past year, luxury wine sales held their own, particularly when you consider this performance in context with the last recession. The last recession featured trading down. This recession has given a breath of life to trading up again! Aren't you curious why?

The Annual SVB State of the Industry Report is Arriving January 13th. Sign up for the Webinar and Report!

 

This is the opening photo from the 20th Annual SVB State of the Industry Report where we begin with a reflection; not on our industry, but on how we each as individuals adapted and prevailed during the most unique business conditions in our lifetimes. 

It's important to celebrate this victory but now that vaccines are being given and we can see an end in sight, what's next? Will business conditions return to normal? 

If we answer that question truthfully, the answer is no. That means doing nothing and hoping for a good year will produce poor outcomes. Change is needed and will require all wine businesses to apply the learnings from 2020 and evolve to find the unique prescription for your individual winey's success.

2020 SVB State of the Industry Report & Videocast

I am looking forward to the release of the Annual State of the Industry Report. I finished writing about 2 weeks ago and now it's going through regulatory, legal, compliance, marketing, production, etc. You can't believe how many people contribute to the production of this.

The report will be released on January 14th. Signing up for the videocast will give you a replay link to watch later, an early link to the report, and slides produced and used during the session.  [sign up here] 

You'll have to wait to hear the conclusions but here is a teaser. 

We asked the question in the SVB survey, "How was your year." It might be surprising to know that sixty-nine percent of the industry believed 2019 was a good year, and 24% said it was their best year ever!

Second Hour Broadcast - 2019 SVB Wine Industry Report

We're presenting a second hour of content for those who want more from the release of the Annual State of the Industry report. Register now, join us and continue the conversation!!

~~~O-O~~~

The summary statement from the Annual SVB Wine Report is the Wine Business is at a decision point. We either keep doing what we are doing today and see the category sag, or we change the way we sell and market. Why have I come to this stark conclusion?

The Annual SVB Wine Business Survey

 

      Business Intelligence?

There is something changing in the business environment. You can feel it. Business is good, but it's fundamentally changing. You have examples of change in the way your business is functioning right now. The consumer is different, but what's causing the change and how will the change impact you? 

Those are the questions business owners should be asking today because change creates both opportunities and threats. So we need to understand what's happening in measurable ways. We all need to know exactly what's transpiring, but how are you going to get that business intelligence?

      Story of My Life

I've always been frustrated by the lack of actionable information and the availability of street-level intelligence in the wine business. There was plenty of information on wine-making and grape growing, but there was never satisfying business intelligence available. What is really happening? How can I know if a decision is sound without any reference points? 

With no good information available, more than 15 years ago I started doing annual research just to make sure the wine community had a starting point. There is a lot to talk about today:

• What are emerging trends in Direct to Consumer sales?
• Is there any pricing upside available in my price segment?
• Will M&A continue and if so, what are buyers seeking?
• What growth rate can I anticipate next year?
• Where should I look for new consumers?
• Are imports or cannabis going to cut into sales? 
• Will grape prices increase next year?

Annual SVB Wine Conditions Survey Ends Friday

 

Face it. Getting actionable information in the wine business is challenging. You can pay more than $2,000 for an annual report on the wine business and in return, get regurgitated information. I once did that myself.

Thinking I would check on the offering of a group putting out a comprehensive report on the wine business, I was disappointed to find it was closer to a college level report that consolidated information from primary research. In fact several places cited the Silicon Valley Bank Annual Wine Report to support their findings.

There are a few places where you can get good primary research on the trends facing the business. For the past decade we've led a survey and conducted research with more than 600 wineries and the major AVA's participating from across the country each year. Why are we so lucky to get such strong participation? 

I think there are a few reasons:

1. We deliver good and needed information to the business for free.
2. We keep the information anonymous and noone can back into responses to determine who responded.
3. We've earned the owner's trust that we aren't using your information to add you to a sales calling list.
4. We give back more than we take. Only survey participants receive the complete data set back and that helps everyone in planning for the year ahead.

So I hope you will consider taking the survey this year. It takes about 12 minutes and in exchange, we will send without cost, the complete survey results, dozens of relevant graphs, and our early analysis on wine industry conditions. [Last year's survey results].

The survey is scheduled to close next Friday so please don't wait. Your participation will pay itself back many times over.

Take the survey now [LINK]

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Picking A Side In the Napa Winery Fight

No it's not Monday when I normally post. I got inspired midweek from Tom Wark who wrote a piece yesterday in his Fermentation Daily Wine Blog entitled Critics of the Napa Valley Wine Industry are Losing Badly. It's a passionate opinion piece of the goings-on in Napa County politics which are overheated with rhetoric. (Rhetoric | rhet·o·ric \ˈre-tə-rik\: language that is intended to influence people and that may not be honest or reasonable.)

Bottle Prices Are Going Up in 2016

How much does this wine cost?

The Annual Wine Conditions Survey is open and delivering interesting early information on supply, price, and many other interesting questions. The survey closes next week but after the first week, almost 300 of your fellow wineries have invested 12 minutes. Why take the survey when we are all busy? Because participants are the only ones who will get complete results.

 

What's the Average Starting Salary in Tasting Rooms?

I used to work in retail when I was a young man. It can be fun when you have a good dialogue with a customer but when alcohol is involved, customers like Miles and Jack in the scene above can make life pretty uncomfortable for public serving employees.

That's when you need someone behind the counter who is confident and knows how to handle those situations. And before that, you want someone who can balance sales and client experience but there is a cost to attract that kind of a person, but how much is that?

2015 State of the Industry Q&A

The Annual SVB Wine Report and the Live Broadcast is complete. For those that missed either one, the replay and report can now be accessed here: LINK.

For those who are looking for some power point slides to use in their own presentations, we've also posted 86 slides at the bottom of the page. Most of them were used in research but not used in either the Report or the Videocast. You are welcome to use the information there - with attribution of course.

The last duty I have for the year is to post the Q&A from the live videocast. This year as seems is always the case, we had participation both Nationally and from about a dozen countries. There seems to be world interest in the US Wine Industry for some reason?

The chat follows and I've littered it this year with the labels of random participants. Feel free to contact me if you have any other questions and I'll get back to you as I'm able.

Santa Karma is Sending You Money in 2015

Putin Claus

This is a wonderful time of year to be a banker in the wine business, or more specifically, it's a wonderful time to be me! ...... holiday parties, presents, my office filling with client wine gifts keeping me in a jolly mood through the holidays, and then my birthday  - which falls on Christmas Eve just in case that slipped your mind this year?
 

The birthday part was a mixed blessing growing up in a family of six kids, and that cost me years of therapy. But I'm better now. I've learned to be thankful for all things, and this year in particular I'm getting my birthday AND Christmas wish; about $2 trillion in stimulus from World Despots.

Will Bottle Prices Increase in 2015?

 

The Annual Wine Conditions Survey will close this Friday. Thus far over 300 of your fellow wineries have participated from across the entire West Coast and Nation. It takes 12 minutes to complete and helps us all understand industry dynamics better. Participants are the ones who will most benefit for small time invested, as they are the only ones who will get the complete results and added analysis.

 

Please join your fellow wineries and participate in the survey before the close Friday [LINK].

What's Going to Happen Next?

Right about this time of the new year we're wiping off the gravy from the corners of our mouths, sending thank-you notes to those who sent us Holiday Gifts[i], trying to figure out how to quickly get rid of the dry tree on the side yard that's become a fire hazard, and feeling guilty about the fact the outside lights are still up on the house. You at least turned them off on January 2nd so that’s something I guess.