2019 State of the Industry Report Signup

2019 SVB State of the Wine Industry

Report & Videocast

Wednesday, January 16, 2019 at 9:30 a.m. PT or 12:30 p.m. ET 

The wine business is changing. You can feel it, even if you can't quantify it. Before you plan out sales and marketing for 2019, you will want to tune-in and discover what's taking place, because there were surprises I didn't expect when I started researching this year.

Cannabis & Millennial Wine Consumption

Following the 2012 initiatives in Colorado and Washington that legalized the recreational use of marijuana, questions started to be asked around the wine business about the substitution effect of pot and wine. Even more interesting to me is to think through, why the wine industry would even ask the question?

The reason the question is being asked is everyone in the wine industry has been feeling uncomfortable with sales trends for some time, and we are all trying to pin down the root causes for the changes. Many have already concluded cannabis is hurting wine sales.

While I've avoided talking about cannabis in the Annual SVB State of the Industry Report up to this point, this year because of the trends I'm seeing, I felt it necessary to take this subject head-on.

You can sign up  [here]  to receive a link to the 2019 SVB Wine Industry Report and the live videocast which will take place on January 16th this year. But here are some of the thoughts I'll present on wine and weed within the report this year.

Wine Supply is Hitting a Tipping Point

I've been pointing out the slowdown in the growth rate of consumer demand by volume for some time now. We are still growing, but the growth rate is slowing, particularly when looking at volume.

I began to talk about shifting consumer demand and premiumization as early as 2006 in the Annual State of the Industry Report. This is a pretty optimistic industry so I was called a Debbie Downer when I started discussing the forward trends back then. That blow-back has since settled down into general agreement and instead of debating the facts as I've laid them out, the discussion has settled into a discussion of strategy.

Source: CA Grape Acreage Report

At some point as demand in volume flattens while bearing acres increase (above chart), we should expect to see a change in grape buying patterns from wineries and ensuing price changes depending on the specific region and variety. 

From all the signs I can see, it appears we've arrived at that tipping point in supply. That will change a lot of things going forward.

The Annual SVB Wine Business Survey

 

      Business Intelligence?

There is something changing in the business environment. You can feel it. Business is good, but it's fundamentally changing. You have examples of change in the way your business is functioning right now. The consumer is different, but what's causing the change and how will the change impact you? 

Those are the questions business owners should be asking today because change creates both opportunities and threats. So we need to understand what's happening in measurable ways. We all need to know exactly what's transpiring, but how are you going to get that business intelligence?

      Story of My Life

I've always been frustrated by the lack of actionable information and the availability of street-level intelligence in the wine business. There was plenty of information on wine-making and grape growing, but there was never satisfying business intelligence available. What is really happening? How can I know if a decision is sound without any reference points? 

With no good information available, more than 15 years ago I started doing annual research just to make sure the wine community had a starting point. There is a lot to talk about today:

• What are emerging trends in Direct to Consumer sales?
• Is there any pricing upside available in my price segment?
• Will M&A continue and if so, what are buyers seeking?
• What growth rate can I anticipate next year?
• Where should I look for new consumers?
• Are imports or cannabis going to cut into sales? 
• Will grape prices increase next year?

Do Tasting Rooms Steal Sales from the Wholesaler?

Procter & Gamble has long been respected for it's integrated product development, integration of acquisitions, and brand marketing. Consider the number of iconic brands they hold like Ivory soap, Pampers diapers, Duracell batteries, Gillette razors, Tampax feminine care products, Crest toothpaste, Tide detergent, and the list goes well beyond that. P&G has more billion dollar brands than any company in the world ... but they don't sell wine. If P&G sold wine people would be running to their mailboxes for free samples and the TTB would not be happy about that.

How Much Did Wineries Really Make in 2017?

      The Wine Industry Shares Information

Unlike most of the business world, there's a sense in the wine business that sharing is part of community, and your neighbor is part of your support mechanism. They are not a rival nor are they a competitor. Everyone freely offers support in the form of information and time. If you need a tractor because yours is mired in a soggy field, no problemo! Need a little welding and custom fabrication on a pump? I'll be right over with a welding rig. Stuck fermentation? I'll send over a portable heating unit.

After-Hours TV: The Cutting Edge of DTC Sales

It Never Ended

The annual SVB videocast was over, but the cameras kept rolling and the discussion continued through the night until the sun started peering through the studio window. Eyelids sanded away retinas with each blink while the smell of spent smokes and stale beer perfumed the room. Amazingly, it was time to shave again, but the studio audience asked for more.

The panelist's raspy voices found comfort with hot coffee, and with adrenaline driving us forward we offered up new topics such as gullet level depletions, employing wine ambassadors in your sales strategies, and the value of making social statements with your brand. But who would get the last word? Would the videocast end?