What's the Surest Way To Fail in Business?

This is my 50th post and I'm celebrating by taking a vacation and am writing this morning from my hotel balcony on Waikiki. That was an unabashed I'm-having-more-fun-than-you comment..... and I'm clearly warped to be writing on vacation... Anyway...

Going through graduate school I took a class in Organization Behavior. I liked the class because it was high-level and covered a number of important theories, and yet - the title of the course always bothered me. It seems like such a non sequitur. It's as if an organization has feelings or predictive behavior, and of course, it doesn't. Organizations and wine producers for that matter are made of people with feelings, perspectives, insecurities, and values. While marketing, sales, production, viticulture, and administration are all important parts of running any wine company, in the end without an established business culture used as a touchstone for behavior and decision-making, the other disciplines will struggle or even fail no matter how awesome the product or strategy. Leaving a company's values unclear or believing everyone just knows what you stand for without talking about it is the surest way to fail.

Is Demand for Wine Dropping?

I saw the above video last week referencing demand for wine and the title got my attention. Is the demand for wine really falling? When you watch the video above many people might think so, but I don't really put a lot of faith in LiveEx as a measure of demand for fine wine. This might be speaking to Bordeaux largely and LiveEx might have use in other areas but not for overall consumer demand.

Last week we did a version of a Mid-Year State of the Industry Blog, but in it noted that its hard to do a State of Anything in a blog so we left out consumer demand. With this video clip from Bloomberg hitting the interwebs, I thought it might be worthwhile to debunk the above perspective.

Is Your Tasting Room Successful?




... and your rice pudding sucks

The other day I  stopped in at Wal-Mart to get some things. While checking out, a very large woman in very tight clothes came up from just outside the store and angrily told my cashier she lost her debit card after she paid. While I looked around the floor for the card the cashier said, "Yes, I remember you putting it back in an envelope" to which the woman replied, "Its not in there. I put it in the envelope but you rushed me to get out of line. You rushed me. I want to see your manager!" 

..... Are you kidding me? I had to work at holding my tongue.

Why Join a Wine Club that Ships Adult Diapers?

I'm probably not the only man around that has a hard time giving gifts. As Dirty Harry aptly put it, "A man's got to know his limitations," and I understand that about me. Oh sure.... chocolate, flowers, jewelry, wine ... the usual accouterment I can handle. I'm not a total hack. I don't forget occasions .... well my PDA doesn't forget occasions, but getting something unique and impactful isn't that easy for me.

I'm not as bad as my dad so that's something. Even as a kid, I knew mom wouldn't understand getting a handheld blow-dryer as a birthday present. Was that supposed to be a signal about the state of her coiffure? My dad was the kindest man I ever knew so I'm guessing it was a practical gift to help her speed up her morning routine (still not a good reason ... I know).  My mom's expression which is still seared into my 7-year-old mind was like the woman to the left who was gifted Tae Bo videos. Even I'm smarter than that. A gift has to be something the other person wants or could use.

So that leads to the question of the week: Would you pay to be in a program that automatically charged your credit card and sent a surprise gift that's guaranteed to be 30% off the normal retail price, even if the company running the program had no clue about you or your tastes? Would you pay to be in that program? What if you are a healthy 40 year old and they sent you adult diapers 30% off. Is that a gift with which you'd be happy - even if it's cheap?

That's an apt description of the traditional wine club that still dominates the wine business. It's one screwed-up model at this point.

How Much Do Tasting Rooms Make?

I had a good meeting with one of my longest tenured clients this past month. We were talking over strategy and the discussion evolved to discussing their tasting room. Specifically, they don't have one - so should they?

My client is in a region where there is an agglomeration of tasting rooms. The winery is doing well without one. A little off the beaten path, if they did put one in they would need to develop some strategies to get people to the winery.

Wanting to hone in on a measure of expected return in their planning, they asked me what's the ROI of a successful tasting room? I could have given them the stock answer and talked about measures of profitability, but the reality is there is no such thing as an average ROI on a tasting room. If fact you are missing the point of a tasting room if success for you is defined as profit.

How Much Value is there in Wine Tourism?

Many in business view another competitor moving into your territory as an affront to all that is fair and decent. Its the moral equivalent of "I was here first." Sometimes that kind of in-your-face competition is truly a net sum zero game. For example, there was a small drive-thru coffee station in the shopping center I frequent, but one day Peat's Coffee moved in. They survived about a year but now the drive-thru is closed. There are plenty of examples just like that but other times, competitors and related businesses cooperating together can have a positive impact on business conditions and instead of waring, can come together and win together.

Is Your Wine Trash or Treasure?

You've heard the saying that one man's trash is another mans treasure. How is it possible that two people can view the same object completely different? Its the difference in how each man values the object in question and how the object makes them feel. What about your wine? Is it trash or treasure? It really depends on who is answering the question AND if they are a target consumer for your product. If they are your target - they better not answer trash. Value is a consistently misunderstood concept but it is critical to consider in any successful marketing strategy.

This is the time of year when the end of year news starts to wane  and winery neighbors come out of their cellars to see if they have a shadow then discuss microbial spoilage, stuck fermentations  and quite often these days - their strategy to market their wines and how to do it in the context of a changed economy. Take a look and listen at just such an exchange in the above movie.

Need Some Fresh Ideas To Help Your Marketing?

If you are like me, you get offers of reports on trends in the wine business about every day. Several years ago I saw a synopsis of an extensive report that seemed pretty interesting. For the mere price of $2,500US I had a several hundred page report on my desk in about a week. Now this was when I still had an expense account so please don't start emailing me more sucker offers.

Sadly, much of the report seemed like it was written by a fresh-out-of-college student, or at a minimum someone who never lived in the wine business. It was rehash of everything you already knew. To make matters worse, I was cited in several places for things I'd said. That instantly devalued the purchase. Why would I listen to me? I always lie.

What Does Harley-Davidson share with wine?

What are the key ingredients for success in business? In my mind its defining effective strategy, having a sense for timing in execution, cohesion in a business culture, focused effort, and a bit of luck. But in the end, there is really one thing that separates successful and unsuccessful businesses: Leadership.

There are several successful leadership styles but there is a character trait most successful leaders share. They have the ability to constantly critique their own success and failures and adapt early. They are people who challenge the status quo routinely, constantly seeking improvement rather than living by rules of thumb and falling into routines and ruts.

You are a smart enough person if you run a business or manage a unit within a company. But if you can't back away from day-to-day duties and get a grasp of the environment changing around you and then strategize for the long run, you might be in the wine business for the short run.

I was reminded of that when I saw [an article] this past week about AMF Bowling seeking bankruptcy protection for a second time within the same decade. I honestly hadn't tracked the company of late, but had in the past as a young banker.

I recall sitting at my office in the early 1980's, reading an analyst report on the company that was covered in the WSJ. In it, the analyst reasoned that with the personal computer taking flight, and given all the accompanying enhanced productivity gains we would see, soon we would all flock to leisure activities to fill up our newly discovered copious free time. As a result, we'd see companies like AMF and Voit take off.

Time For Post-Harvest & Post-Election Yogi.

When life is confusing, we all have to have a moral compass. For me, I look to the immortal Yogi Berra to make some sense out of things. Lets look at a few factoids:

• That was two years of campaigning estimated to have exceeded $6 billion dollars. That is with a B. . . . . six billion. I remember when a thousand million was meaningful and to cite the immortal Yogi Berra, "Pretty soon that adds up to real money."

• How expensive was it? It was the most costly election in world history according to the Financial Times by almost double. It cost $18 for every man woman and child living in the US. And what did that money get us? ...... just about what we had before. So the real question is, who is expecting a different result? It's deja-vu all over again.

• Don't you think it's strange that the approval rating of Congress is lower than that of amoebic slime mold  (....even lower than bankers....)  and we largely voted the same gridlocked bunch back into office? I guess that means we've lowered our expectations of our politicians. The future aint what it used to be.

• Your guy didn't win? Just buck up and stop your whining. Its a victory knowing we can get back to normal and reclaim our lives like they were before fact-checkers at different networks came to different conclusions about the same facts. They could have observed a lot by just watching.

• It says something about us that when our candidate loses a debate, the FOX or MSNBC talking heads start flogging the moderators and then read idiotic tweets and emails from "anonymous" just to look like they are with it from a social media perspective. Its like when your team loses, you got jobbed by the refs. When did respected news-people become fair game instead of the candidates? My advice is next time the spin room gets an anonymous letter, don't open it.

•  Ever notice how every year after harvest whoever is interviewed says, "This was one of the best growing years ever." Oh sure there was frost at budbreak. That just made the vines work harder. And yea ... there was a monsoon at flower, but that just lowered the yield naturally. We didn't need to drop fruit. ...... So when we really DO have the best harvest .... maybe ever, who is going to believe us? Maybe we need to plan our spokesperson playbook because if you don’t know where you’re going, chances are you will end up somewhere else."

So.... can anyone remember what we were talking about before our collective consciousness was eaten by political zombies and our brains turned into polenta? There is a lot to talk about but lets talk about just a couple critical related topics; the economy and the stock market.

The Best President for the Wine Business is ....

I Lied .........

Think Its a Tight Race?

I admit it. I said last week that SVB on Wine would be going on hiatus until January while we are producing the Annual State of the Industry report. Well .....I guess I lied. Shocking! A banker who lied? I guess that makes me eligible for public office though. ....hmmm....upon further reflection ....nope .... unlike President Clinton who never inhaled but he did lie, I did inhale ... once ... as an aspiring musician but it was a job requirement. Nonetheless, that makes me unfit for public office and as a colorful Senator once said, "If nominated, I shall run to Mexico. If elected, I shall fight extradition." I mean really, who would want to run for public office these days and endure the mud-slinging and digging into the mistakes in your life? We've made office fit only for people who never made a mistake, or were never caught in a mistake.

Moving on to the topic at hand, many people seemed pretty engaged on the piece we wrote last week that discussed Argentina and the negative impact their Government has on the wine business. After watching the feisty Presidential debates this past week, I said to myself .... "Self? Which of the two candidates is best suited to help the wine industry for the next four years?"  'Myself,' predictably didn't answer me, so I've decided to go against my better judgment and toss it out for a discussion topic this week.

Argentina: Why Malbec doesn't Flood the US

There's no substitute for visiting a wine region to get a true sense for the business. Tasting doesn't tell you strategy. Reading won't describe scents in the air. A travelogue gives you no indication of the heart of the people or the quirks in customs. For that you have to visit the region.

A few months ago I was given the opportunity to speak at the VIII Foro Internacional Vitivinícola in Mendoza Argentina. It didn't take long for me to accept the invite. In the U.S. I've tried many of their wines but wasn't that impressed, probably because I've never focused on the region and generally was drinking wines in restaurants that were over priced. But the buzz over quality Argentinean wines has never waned. Some of my clients even have vineyards there. So I saw this as an opportunity to broaden my understanding of the Argentina and get first hand knowledge. What I came away with was inspiring and mind altering.

Part I: The Long Term Future of US Wine Sales

Don Draper, the Middle Class, and the Mad US Wine Consumer

Economically speaking, a luxury good is one with a demand curve that's straight up and down and a commodity has a horizontal demand curve. Practically speaking there's a lot of gray between the two and Luxury for American's is easier to segment into "need to have" (a vacation camping close to home) and "want to have" (a vacation at the Hilton in Rome).

There was a time when luxury goods were that: Custom goods manufactured for the wealthy. Mass Luxury? At best that was just an oxymoron. Back in the day, lettuce was not a luxury good. It came in fresh iceberg or older iceberg. There were no field greens mixed in a gas sealed bag replete with mustard greens and escarole. But when the boys came home from a World War and the Boomers started popping out and growing up, America grew a large appetite for something more than 'need to have' products. We desired, wanted and coveted the Jones' stuff next store. An exploding middle class was the catalyst that gave the Mad Men out there license to pitch our wildest needs and wants, and we consumed our way to prosperity.

Today with a shrinking middle class, displays of wealth politically incorrect, a waning Boomer, and a $9 trillion dollar hit to the net worth of America's consumers in real estate losses, can we still have Mass Luxury goods like we used to and more important, will we be able to afford them, and even more important still, what does that mean for wine?

How Will You Keep Up With Changes In DtC?

MJ Dale, KLH Consulting

This is part II of a piece on DtC by that most awesome of awesome women, Mary Jo Dale of KLH Consulting in Santa Rosa. (Check out the link attached to her name if you want to see what I mean by her awesomeness.)

Yes, you came to the right place. This is SVB on Wine, but as you know from last week, "A man has got to know his limitations," and MJ is leaps and bounds smarter than me when it comes to Direct Sales, CRM, Club Management, and current technology supporting all of that. Every time I hear her talk, I come away with something new. You have an opportunity to ask all the questions you want and not get charged her $5,000 an hour rate. (You just wasted $176 reading this.)

Enjoy Part II of Trouble in Paradise.

2012-2013 Predictions on the Wine Business

Each year I take out my crystal ball, put on funny clothes and after my eyes roll into the back of my head for a sufficient amount of time, write Silicon Valley Bank’s State of the Wine Industry Report and make some predictions. I am a most fortunate soothsayer to be able to see so much of what is largely a private industry. Silicon Valley Bank has it's own data base of financial information, I produce various surveys throughout the year with more than 500 respondents, have direct contact with clients, prospects, suppliers to the wine business, relationships with distributors and large scale farmers, academia, media and I’m sure I’m missing an angle or two. That all helps to clear up the cloudy crystal ball.

Is The Wine Business Sustainable?

There is a lot of talk around the concept of 'sustainability' so much so that it loses its meaning. What makes a business - any business sustainable?

When you work in the wine business, you soon discover the reality is not the vision guests to wineries have. When a guest comes to a winery, they are greeted by owners and tasting room workers poised for hospitality. They have their best foot forward. And just like all of us, what you present to guests invited for dinner isn't reflective of the struggles you had during the day. In the same way, the wine industry puts out an image of a gracious lifestyle, but that's not the heart of the business nor is that what makes the business sustainable. This is a business that has its makeup and culture rooted in the reality that you really can't do this alone. At a minimum, you have to depend on God, Mother Nature, and luck to make a year. You have to depend on farm workers to execute and harvest on time in the right way. In fact its really harvest when that all comes together. That short window is all you get. That is a whole year's worth of sales and that intense period is the canvas that underpins the true culture of the community and in the end makes the wine business sustainable.

Can Wineries Increase their Bottle Prices?

Middle Class Mashed

Middle Class Wealth Back to 1983 Levels

That is a question all wineries are asking: When will they be able to meaningfully raise bottle prices and recover their margins? To get at the answer, you have to start by answering the question, what drove the prior pricing increase in the 90's into the 2000's? The answer is the middle-class and the Boomers.

The Great Recession wasn’t that great for anyone but it outright sucked if you were in the middle class. The middle class is that section of the population that was more likely to have lower savings, lower stock market exposure, and a higher percentage of their net worth centered in their homes. Since 2000, the middle class has shrunk in size, wealth, income and optimism about their future according to a recent report from The Pew Research Center. The impact of the weakening of the middle class will continue to linger and impair the wine industry's ability to pass on the higher costs of grapes for many years to come.

Can You Succeed in the Wine Business Without CRM & SM?

You are a with-it kind of person so you probably recognize the acronyms in the title stand for Social Media and Customer Relationship Management. You are so together, you probably have your Facebook and LinkedIn accounts with more than 500 of your closest friends and colleagues connected. You have a Klout score. You have a smart phone and check in with Foursquare at every occasion. You’ve even started tweeting twice a day about such fascinating things as, "Happy #FF" and "Isn't it a beautiful #DAY all my peeps." And the result of your social dalliance with SM on growing your sales is?..... Absolutely Nothing. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Zero. What is going on? Where are all those Millennials who are supposed to be Tweeting up a storm and rushing to your door. If you do Social Media, they will come! ...... won't they?

Is California Wine At a Pricing Inflection Point?

 

 "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt"

It's not easy deciding on a presidential candidate. The debate between Mitt Romney and George W Bush didn't help me. ......but that's not important.

What IS important is the Gomberg-Fredrikson Report for May shows cumulative bulk imports accounted for 19.3 million case equivalents shipped into the US in 2012; a whopping 167% increase. That's the equivalent harvest of 27,000 acres of US winegrapes calculated at 12 tons per acre.

Is 7%-11% growth in US Fine Wine disappointing?

Up to the spring of 2010, I wasn't the most popular of prognosticators. Prior to the crash I started handing out predictions as I saw things, a housing bubble, large market corrections, etc. Strangely, after the first gloomy prediction my literary agent stopped getting any calls for book signings and speaking opportunities. “Call someone that's not a Debbie Downer.” I was a pariah, a leper, an outcast with the likability of an attorney from the WSWA. Then last year when I said we were at the beginning of another long-term period of growth in fine wine, the phone stared to ring. I was once again quotable and in demand for speaking engagements. What’s the old saying? Failure is an orphan, but success has many fathers? That's why it's particularly disappointing for me to throw a little cold water on the wine recovery.... but let me emphasize the adjective 'little' because its a measured mid-year course correction, doesn't change the growth forecast, and I still want to get some speaking invitations.