The Annual SVB State of the Industry Survey is Closing

The wine industry is uncharted territory, and analysts' opinions of its current state are varied. If the analyst views were music, they would range from Bob Marley's, 'Every Little Thing's gonna be Alright,' to Led Zeppelin's, 'When the Levee Breaks, I'll Have no Place to Stay.' Who are you going to believe?

While instinct has a place, facts matter, and there are too many supporting facts to think everything is just fine. While finding the good news in the information has become challenging, it's not all bad. Some wineries continue to perform well, even though they are experiencing the same headwinds as your winery. Why is that? How will you respond to the headwinds for your winery? Where are there opportunities?

SVB has been dissecting the wine business and offering the industry and regions fact-based guidance for nearly 30 years. The NY Times calls the SVB report "probably the most influential analysis of its kind." What do we owe that to? A lot of consistent hard work over 30 years, a wide net with information gathering, personal relationships with hundreds of wineries, and a partnership with the industry to drive benchmarks that give subjective and objective conclusions to our opinions. We can only do what we do only with the industry's support.

These are the final days to participate in the 2024 State of the Industry Survey. We have a soft close scheduled for Friday the 18th but have decided to leave the survey open for stragglers through the weekend. We currently have 363 responses and are on pace to reach our goal of 500 wineries with cooperation this week.

Adding your data to this annual industry event will only take about 20 minutes. 

• Here are the survey questions that you can use to prepare: Link. 
• Here is the survey itself: Link.

Is this a correction, or a small road bump?

Before discussing the topic, let me get some quick business out of the way: The SVB Annual State of the Industry Survey is open for two more weeks, and your participation is vital. We really need your help. We currently have 140 responses but need at least 500 responses. Why participate? 

The SVB Wine Industry Report has provided transparent, fact-based direction for the US Wine Industry for decades. The survey adds subjective color to objective data. That color produces better understanding, which is the first step in planning change. 

This survey is done in partnership with you the winery. Adding your data to this annual industry event will only take about 20 minutes. 

• Here are the survey questions that you can use to prepare: Link. 
• Here is the survey itself: Link.

Is the Direct-to-Consumer Channel Holding Up?

The answer to the title question is yes, DTC is holding up, but as most in the industry will attest, it's a nuanced response that requires a discussion. 

Sign up for the 2024 annual SVB Direct-to-Consumer Videocast presented next Tuesday, June 25th, to hear an expert panel discuss the findings from the 2024 Direct-Direct-to-Consumer Survey.

What can you expect? After researching the wine industry for more than 20 years and producing this report for well over a decade, you can expect the same thing you always get: an honest and balanced view of the current direct-to-consumer market. 

Would you like a teaser? Take a look at the chart below. 

Some early results from the SVB DTC survey

 

Today, we are about 50 responses short of what we need to produce the Annual Direct to Consumer Report, so please participate. To help us reach the finish line, we are leaving the survey open over the weekend and closing it on 3/24.

Here are the questions if you want to prepare [link], as well as the [link] to the survey.

Let me give you some examples of important and interesting information from the survey so far.

Several sources have reported that tasting room visitation was down last year. Some have speculated that it's due to high tasting room fees. The headline slide is a chart from the interim survey data that puts a different spin on that conclusion. 

Breaking the top chart into quartiles, the upper quartile seems expensive, especially considering people seldom taste alone. Life and wine tasting are a team sport—maybe someone can use that in a marketing pitch. Anyway, the lower two quartiles, representing half of the winery respondents so far, are about $23 or less.

Another fact you can pull from that same information set is the practice of using standard and reserve tasting fees. Surprisingly, 26.2% of responses thus far only use standard tasting fees. For those wineries that have both reserve and standard fees, the average reserve fee is 1.9 times larger than the reserve fee, with a maximum of 5 times the standard fee, down to 1.2 times the standard tasting fee.

Here is some more interesting information on tasting room reimbursement policies. From this chart below, you can see how you compare to other wineries on tasting fee reimbursement policies. If you participate in the survey and get the full anonymous data set, you can also sort this information out by region.

There is one other thing that might be of interest. Seven percent of the wineries do something besides the other choices offered. Aren't you curious about their policies? Only participants who complete the survey get this added data that you might use to generate ideas. 

Without giving away all of the "other" responses, here are some:

•    We comp tastings if you join the club or purchase 3 bottles.

•    We do flights, not tastings. No reimbursement.

•    Free tastings for people who rent venue (we do weddings)

•    10% off 12 bottles.

•    We will waive two tasting fees for a minimum $1,000 purchase.

•    Club Members get a limited number of free tastings; otherwise, we do not reimburse them.

•    Tasting fees waived for wine industry partners only

•    Club members only 4x per year

•    We don't charge our top buyers for their tasting fees

•    We only waive fees for people who have McMillan for a last name.

•    we don't offer tastings. We offer 5 oz glass for $3.75

•    Our state law doesn't allow "free" tastings, so we charge $1 per taste

•    We allow wine club members and up to three of their guests to taste for free. We do not reimburse tasting fees otherwise.

•    We waive tasting fees if the customer pays with cash.

Some of those ideas are certainly worth considering. Here are the questions if you want to prepare [link]

Should SVB continue to produce the Annual DTC report?

This is my annual attempt to plead for your help, without which we can't produce the 13th Annual Direct-to-Consumer Report. 

If there was ever a time when actionable information and insights were needed, this is it. But we are close to a crisis point because we are unable to get sufficient survey responses. 

The SVB Annual Direct-to-Consumer Survey has been open for two weeks and is scheduled to close this Friday, March 22nd. As of this writing, we have 165 responses with just a few days remaining. That's far from the 500 we need to produce good results. (Click the top chart to see your region's performance thus far.)

The survey has just 29 questions. It should take 10 to 15 minutes to complete, even less if you are prepared. Many complete the survey in under five minutes. If you want to see the questions in advance, you can download and print them here.

In May, all survey participants will receive high-level analysis, benchmarks, and complete sanitized respondent data, anonymized of all personal and business-identifying information. Nobody else gets this data, and it can't be purchased.

Silicon Valley Bank goes to great lengths and costs to provide this report to the industry gratis. Still, it's a partnership with you: Without survey responses, we can't produce this industry resource.

So please spread the word on your social channels and make this a personal goal. Your choice to participate or not is a vote for us to continue with this initiative or phase it out.

 

What are you doing to improve club signups away from the tasting room?

The Target is Moving Again

Some of the questions we've answered over the years through the SVB annual direct-to-consumer survey have been critical to the industry's success, such as whether standing or seated tastings are more effective, or going back over a decade ago, what the lifetime value of a direct-to-consumer customer is. 

The latter question was asked at a time when we were moving from an over-dependence on three-tier sales and evolving with the freedoms extended with the Granholm decision. Today, we find ourselves at a new point of evolution, so answers are critical to success.

With two consecutive years of lower tasting room visitation impacting club memberships, wouldn't you be interested in knowing what your neighbors are doing to improve club signups that don't come through the tasting room? That's one of the questions we are posing this year.

Please do your part and contribute to this annual industry partnership with me. Without your participation, I can't produce the information that can help the industry. 

The 2024 DtC survey is now open and will close on March 22nd.

In May, all respondents who complete the survey will receive high-level analysis, benchmarks, and the complete sanitized respondent data, anonymized of all personal and business identifying information. Nobody else gets this data, and it can't be purchased. At the end of May, we will release a videocast to the industry and, along with other industry experts, discuss the findings. 

This year, the survey should take you fifteen to twenty minutes to complete and even less if you are a little prepared. If you would like to see the questions in advance, you can download and print them here.

Are you ready to participate in the survey this year?

The 2024 SVB State of the Industry Report & replay is available for download

 

Nearly 3,000 attendees from dozens of the wine-producing countries of the world tuned in on January 18^th to hear from Rob McMillan, EVP & Wine Division Founder, Crimson Wine Group CEO Jennifer Locke, industry innovator Paul Mabray, and Enolytics SVP of Professional Services Ed Thralls as they discussed the trends and findings identified in SVB’s 23rd annual State of the US Wine Report. 

Watch the Replay: SVB State of the Wine Industry - 2024 Virtual Event (youtube.com)

 

Read the Report Here: State of the US Wine Industry Report 2024 | Silicon Valley Bank (svb.com) 

Recognizing the Need for Change 

The key findings indicate that the alcohol beverage market across the board is in a period of change, driven by evolving consumer dynamics, including the aging of older wine-focused boomers, who are being replaced by a new set of primary consumers who drink across categories, drink less wine, and consume less alcohol.  

“With the current messaging about alcohol as it relates to health and wellness, premium wine is well suited to meet the prevailing guidance around benefits and moderation,” said Jennifer. “We don’t have to reinvent what we are making; we have to retell our story and tell it collectively.”  

 Key Takeaways

Premium wineries experienced mixed success during the past year. The value of premium wine is still growing, but we anticipate volume sales will finish lower this year. The industry will need to find collaborative solutions to link wine attributes with the segmented values of newer consumers to increase demand while at the same time finding efficiencies in sales, marketing, and production to retain margins.

  

Minor headwinds contributed to the mixed outcomes at premium wineries. 

Direct-to-consumer volume sales were lower in 2023. Tasting room visitation dropped for the second straight year leading to lower premium sales through nine months in 2023. However, strong 2023 holiday sales should lead to positive growth in value at year-end. 

Consumer demand for the total wine category continues to decline. 

As reported over the last several years, in addition to wine, U.S. consumers have been drinking across categories such as ready-to-drink (RTD) options, spirits, beer, and cannabis or have been abstaining altogether. 

There is an oversupply of planted vineyards, given current sales volumes. 

Conditions are ripe for overproduction, which may lead to inventory excess in more price segments, discounting, and eventually price reductions. Pressure starting from the grower will create inventory bulges and drive higher-than-needed inventory turns in 2024.