Sunday, January 12, 2020

Final Call: Sign up for the 2020 SVB Industry Videocast and Report



I finished writing the SVB Annual State of the Industry Report in early December. There are always surprises I discover when going through the research and writing. This year the surprise was the top slide. This slide is from the Annual Industry Survey and it answers a question everyone has: How is the industry feeling about the current market?

In the 2019 report last year, the overall industry sentiment turned barely negative with one percent of the industry on average turning pessimistic. That's news in and of itself in this most optimistic of businesses. But in the 2020 report which will be released this week, a whopping 46 percent of the industry turned pessimistic. Wow! Have conditions turned that bad that fast? 

I think you have to respect the data. But I also believe identifying the risks and threats allows us to best define solutions to fight back and in the videocast on Tuesday, we will talk about some solutions.

Hopefully, you want to hear how we see the industry this year - threats and opportunities. Signing up for the videocast will give you a replay link to watch later, an early link to the report and slides produced and used during the session. [sign up here

Why do you think the mood has changed? If you look at the segments of sentiment in the lead slide, substitutes had the largest negative change. That doesn't mean foreign competition, but rather beer, spirits, cannabis, and other beverages. We'll talk about each during the telecast.



Narrowing that down, are spiked seltzers one of the substitutes making us blue? Are seltzers really a substitute, or are they bringing in more consumers to the category, and might that portend better days ahead?

The above chart is showing the growth rate in that beverage and it's quite stunning. You might be surprised to hear my conclusion regarding this category, but I won't spoil it here. 

This is obviously the tip of the iceberg in the discussion. During the live videocast, we are going to cover many more topics including:
  • The current acute oversupply of grapes and what that will mean
  • Consumer demand — trends and opportunities
  • Sales of wine in restaurants and grocery stores
  • Needed changes to the Direct to Consumer model
  • Industry sentiment — what are the industry's main fears?
  • Can anyone take price increases in today's environment?
  • The critical change we need to make in sales and marketing
Please join me alongside Amy Hoopes, President of Wente Family Estates; Juliana Colangelo, West Coast Director of Colangelo & Partners; and Paul Mabray, CEO of Emetry, in a live videocast and presentation of the annual Silicon Valley Bank State of the Wine Industry Report.

Date: January 14, 2020
Time: 9:30 to 10:30 a.m. PST





1 comment:

  1. "Wow! Have conditions turned that bad that fast?"

    Will the videocast balance consumer sentiment with fact-based data?

    The data shows a positive outlook for wines over $11 retail.

    According to IRI 52 weeks ending January 5, 2019, Total Wine was up +3% in value. The growth was driven by the Luxury +8%, Ultra-premium +10% and Super-premium +8% categories which account for a 49% of total category value. Perhaps these folks didn’t take part in the SVB survey.
    The lower-priced Premium, Popular and Value categories were all down in 2019. Five wine companies control 60% of the volume in these categories. Perhaps these folks had a better turnout for the SVB survey.
    If we're making assumptions that consumers are "substituting" hard seltzers and cannabis for wine, perhaps it’s coming from these declining lower-priced wine categories.
    If consumers are trading out wine at lower price points for non-wine products these wines are nothing more than consumer packaged goods like peanut butter or soda. Unless they differentiate themselves, they’re in the fight of their lives. Budweiser just launched their $100MM Bud Light Seltzer campaign.
    If you are a winery and you are selling wines in the higher price-points that are thriving, it’s hard to understand why your overall sentiment would be negative. According to Winemetrics, on-premise list placements at higher price points were up too.
    Presumably most of the trade that responded to the survey sell domestic wines as that’s SVB’s audience (and client list). Over the next few weeks things are about to get even more favorable for these wineries as the threat of tariffs on Western European wines looms.

    Cheer up. Don’t believe all the doom and gloom.

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