I finished writing the SVB Annual State of the Industry Report in early December. There are always surprises I discover when going through the research and writing. This year the surprise was the top slide. This slide is from the Annual Industry Survey and it answers a question everyone has: How is the industry feeling about the current market?
In the 2019 report last year, the overall industry sentiment turned barely negative with one percent of the industry on average turning pessimistic. That's news in and of itself in this most optimistic of businesses. But in the 2020 report which will be released this week, a whopping 46 percent of the industry turned pessimistic. Wow! Have conditions turned that bad that fast?
I think you have to respect the data. But I also believe identifying the risks and threats allows us to best define solutions to fight back and in the videocast on Tuesday, we will talk about some solutions.
Hopefully, you want to hear how we see the industry this year - threats and opportunities. Signing up for the videocast will give you a replay link to watch later, an early link to the report and slides produced and used during the session. [sign up here]
Why do you think the mood has changed? If you look at the segments of sentiment in the lead slide, substitutes had the largest negative change. That doesn't mean foreign competition, but rather beer, spirits, cannabis, and other beverages. We'll talk about each during the telecast.
The above chart is showing the growth rate in that beverage and it's quite stunning. You might be surprised to hear my conclusion regarding this category, but I won't spoil it here.
This is obviously the tip of the iceberg in the discussion. During the live videocast, we are going to cover many more topics including:
- The current acute oversupply of grapes and what that will mean
- Consumer demand — trends and opportunities
- Sales of wine in restaurants and grocery stores
- Needed changes to the Direct to Consumer model
- Industry sentiment — what are the industry's main fears?
- Can anyone take price increases in today's environment?
- The critical change we need to make in sales and marketing
Date: January 14, 2020
Time: 9:30 to 10:30 a.m. PST